Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW)
Valuation Overview•Is Genworth Financial, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Fragile underlying quality score of 43/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant growth concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
GNW struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($523M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-4.9% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 5.6%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | -10.9% | -4.9% | -5.0% | -2.9% | |
| EBITDA | $80.0M | — | -29.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $80.0M | -25.4% | -37.6% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.12 | -20.6% | -23.2% | -18.4% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $91.0M | +271.6% | -32.2% | -31.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 7.6% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 10.9% |
| Operating Margin | 5.6% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 7.8% |
| Net Margin | 3.6% | 2.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% |
| FCF Margin | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 16.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.17 | $0.28 | +60.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.16 | $0.02 | -87.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.10 | $0.04 | -60.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.06 | $0.16 | +166.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.21 | $0.12 | -42.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.18 | $0.04 | -77.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.19 | $0.11 | -42.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.20 | $0.28 | +40.0% |
Total return is +15.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -10.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -0.2% | -9.5% | — |
| 1Y | +15.0% | -10.0% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +20.6% | +1.2% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +17.5% | +4.3% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +10.8% | -2.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW) valuation, health, and returns.
Genworth Financial, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +63.9% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $14.67)
Genworth Financial, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $14.67 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $8.66. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Genworth Financial, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 43/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.6%.
Genworth Financial, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 9.3% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -5.8% in the last 12 months.
Genworth Financial, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -10.9% 1Y revenue growth and -20.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -4.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 17 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Genworth Financial, Inc. include: -14.1% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.44x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.