MODEL VERDICT
Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $25.46 | +98.1% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $30.27 | +135.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $5.39 | -58.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $12.08 | -6.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $4.04 | -68.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $36.58 | +184.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $30.50 | +137.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.72 | +69.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 28× | 31× (Current) | 34× | 37× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Conservative (23%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Base Case (35.4%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (48%) | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 96.16 | 62.46 | 26.02 | 200.00 | 91.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.44 | 32.37 | 22.21 | 43.58 | 6.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.27 | 13.99 | 11.60 | 17.29 | 1.86 |
| P/FCF | 10.76 | 11.15 | 5.72 | 14.54 | 2.67 |
| P/FFO | 9.54 | 8.84 | 6.50 | 13.43 | 2.22 |
| P/TBV | 8.55 | 8.90 | 6.31 | 10.69 | 1.59 |
| P/AFFO | 11.25 | 10.52 | 9.41 | 14.53 | 2.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.51 | 3.43 | 2.88 | 4.65 | 0.62 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.79 | 4.67 | 3.12 | 6.84 | 1.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates GOOD's fair value at $21.72 vs the current price of $12.85, implying +69.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.01 (P10) to $22.99 (P90), with a median of $20.86.
GOOD's current P/E of 31.3x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +6.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 96.2x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
14 analysts cover GOOD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.00 (range: $13.00 — $13.00), implying +1.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 13.6% is 12.3 percentage points above the 3-year average (1.3%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$4. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GOOD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (1.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7180.0% to approximately $4. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.