MODEL VERDICT
Graf Global Corp. (GRAF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.81 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.83 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.79 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $6.25 | -42.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $26.10 | +140.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $51.14 | +370.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $6.23 | -42.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.25 | +68.0% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $13 |
| Conservative (11%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (16.6%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.06 | 38.41 | 22.93 | 73.85 | 26.10 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.29 | 0.52 | 1.43 | 0.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.29 | 0.52 | 1.43 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates GRAF's fair value at $18.25 vs the current price of $10.86, implying +68.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.61 (P10) to $20.94 (P90), with a median of $17.24.
GRAF's current P/E of 38.8x compares to the industry median of 22.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +73.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 45.1x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for GRAF.
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GRAF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.