MODEL VERDICT
Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $4.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $4.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $4.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $4.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $4.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $1.36 | -71.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $13.10 | +178.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $12.40 | +163.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.39 | -28.0% | 100% | 47 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.49 | 14.15 | 1.66 | 126.67 | 68.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.00 | 7.61 | 1.47 | 14.91 | 6.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.19 | 6.20 | 1.28 | 11.22 | 3.56 |
| P/FCF | 5.53 | 3.29 | 2.08 | 13.48 | 5.39 |
| P/FFO | 5.53 | 7.25 | 1.40 | 7.93 | 3.59 |
| P/TBV | 1.79 | 1.19 | 0.30 | 5.78 | 1.82 |
| P/AFFO | 16.69 | 17.08 | 1.55 | 31.42 | 14.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 0.96 | 0.26 | 3.42 | 1.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.10 | 0.75 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates GSM's fair value at $3.39 vs the current price of $4.71, implying -28.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 47/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.17 (P10) to $5.69 (P90), with a median of $3.89.
GSM's current P/E of -5.2x compares to the industry median of 24.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -121.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 47.5x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover GSM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 47/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GSM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.