MODEL VERDICT
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (HASI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $42.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $41.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $40.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $40.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $38.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $18.70 | -56.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $20.03 | -52.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $21.47 | -49.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $19.40 | -54.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $18.07 | -57.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $29.63 | -30.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.65 | -30.3% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $37 | $40 | $43 | $46 | $49 |
| Conservative (5%) | $38 | $41 | $44 | $47 | $50 |
| Base Case (5.1%) | $39 | $41 | $44 | $47 | $50 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.50 | 25.95 | 16.56 | 64.40 | 19.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 52.00 | 39.50 | 16.39 | 110.47 | 33.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.45 | 38.83 | 28.28 | 102.19 | 27.51 |
| P/FCF | 1792.79 | 70.68 | 19.16 | 11416.78 | 4249.22 |
| P/FFO | 33.36 | 24.48 | 17.42 | 57.72 | 16.71 |
| P/TBV | 2.20 | 1.66 | 1.42 | 3.90 | 0.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.17 | 1.63 | 1.41 | 3.90 | 0.95 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.94 | 10.13 | 5.54 | 20.09 | 4.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HASI's fair value at $29.65 vs the current price of $42.53, implying -30.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.02 (P10) to $36.05 (P90), with a median of $29.77.
HASI's current P/E of 30.2x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +127.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover HASI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $44.50 (range: $38.00 — $50.00), implying +4.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 46.1% is 11.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (34.8%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$37. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HASI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (34.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1360.0% to approximately $37. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.