MODEL VERDICT
Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company (HBB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 19 analyst estimates | $24.24 | +27.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 20 industry peers | $25.19 | +32.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 16 industry peers | $34.74 | +82.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 20 industry peers | $58.86 | +209.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 19 industry peers | $44.88 | +135.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 20 industry peers | $78.55 | +312.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 22 industry peers | $32.77 | +72.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 22 industry peers | $22.79 | +19.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $35.32 | +85.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 20 industry peers | $58.65 | +208.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $325.00 | +1606.9% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $16 | $21 | $25 | $30 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $16 | $21 | $26 | $30 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $12 | $17 | $22 | $27 | $31 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $17 | $22 | $27 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.92 | 8.52 | 5.20 | 14.75 | 3.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.74 | 9.40 | 8.34 | 11.73 | 1.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.35 | 8.13 | 5.91 | 10.34 | 1.47 |
| P/FCF | 1014.48 | 33.27 | 2.89 | 4946.54 | 2198.35 |
| P/FFO | 7.57 | 7.12 | 4.79 | 12.36 | 2.66 |
| P/TBV | 3.69 | 2.12 | 1.48 | 9.76 | 3.10 |
| P/AFFO | 9.97 | 8.33 | 5.12 | 17.91 | 4.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.08 | 1.96 | 1.39 | 7.23 | 2.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.43 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HBB's fair value at $325.00 vs the current price of $19.04, implying +1606.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $325.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.07 (P10) to $1241.40 (P90), with a median of $348.50.
HBB's current P/E of 8.7x compares to the industry median of 15.8x (16 peers in the group). This represents a -45.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover HBB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HBB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 150.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.