MODEL VERDICT
Hercules Capital Inc (HCXY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, competitive benchmarking & quality-adjusted fair value
The market is pricing Hercules Capital Inc at a 39.97% premium to its peer-implied fair value.
6 curated peers matched by business model, revenue composition, and market position
| Ticker | Company | Market Cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCC | Ares Capital Corporation | $13.06B | 9.78x | 12.84x |
| GBDC | Golub Capital BDC, Inc. | $3.28B | 8.87x | 11.87x |
| TPVG | TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. | $191M | 3.85x | 8.45x |
| HTGC | Hercules Capital, Inc. | $2.92B | 8.42x | 14.12x |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. | $751M | 10.7x | 12.74x |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp. | $678M | 7.31x | 11.05x |
3 valuation metrics · peer-median based
| Multiple | Current | Peer Median | vs Peers | Implied Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/EPrice paid for next year's expected earnings. | 12.75x | 8.62x | Premium +47.93% | $16.83 |
| P/EPrice paid for current earnings. | 13.46x | 8.64x | Premium +55.71% | $14.58 |
| P/BMarket value versus book equity. | 2.19x | 0.76x | Premium +187.76% | $8.65 |
How the model derives the final fair value from peer baselines and quality metrics
Premium: The stock is trading at a 66.57% premium to its quality-adjusted fair value of $14.95. The market is pricing the stock 39.96% above our model's estimate.
Quality metrics are stronger than the peer group, justifying a premium.
Quality adjustments are capped at ±15% (up to ±20% for financial services) to prevent runaway premiums. Based on trailing twelve months and multi-year CAGR data where available.
How current multiples rank vs 8 years of the stock’s own history
| Multiple | Current | Historical Median | Percentile | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E8 years of data | 13.46x | 15.52x | 25th | Below historical norm |
| P/B8 years of data | 2.19x | 2.23x | 25th | Below historical norm |
Hercules Capital Inc currently trades near the lowest valuation levels observed during the last 8 years.
HCXY looks expensive versus peers using curated peers, with relative upside of -40.0%.
Answers to common questions about HCXY's relative valuation and our methodology.
Hercules Capital Inc's fair value of $14.95 is the price at which the stock would trade if valued at the same multiples as its 6-company peer group, adjusted for differences in business quality. At $24.90, the stock trades at a -39.96% premium to fair value. This is a reference point, not a price target.
The 6 peers shown were selected based on business model similarity, revenue composition, and market position. Each peer was matched for comparable operations, not just industry label. Only companies with clean, usable financial data are included.
Hercules Capital Inc has strengths in 3y eps growth, roe, net margin, and a quality score that justifies a 10% premium relative to its peer group. The Quality Adjustment section breaks down each driver.
No. This page provides an automated quantitative comparison of Hercules Capital Inc against its peers. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Valuation is only one factor in an investment decision — it does not account for growth catalysts, management quality, regulatory risk, or your personal financial situation.
A 39.96% premium is substantial. Large premiums suggest the market is pricing in significant growth or quality advantages that must be delivered to justify the current price. Review the Risk Factors and Historical Context sections to assess whether the gap is justified.
Valuation data is refreshed weekly based on the latest financial filings, market prices, and analyst estimates. Hercules Capital Inc's fair value, peer multiples, and quality scores will shift over time as new earnings are reported and stock prices change.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Fair value estimates are model outputs under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.