MODEL VERDICT
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $24.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $24.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $24.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $24.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $24.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $17.88 | -27.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $10.19 | -58.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $10.19 | -58.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $49.36 | +99.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $17.88 | -27.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $16.33 | -34.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.27 | -18.3% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $21 | $25 | $28 | $32 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 | $33 |
| Base Case (-1.6%) | $16 | $20 | $24 | $27 | $31 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $16 | $20 | $24 | $27 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.26 | 15.41 | 10.93 | 19.83 | 2.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.49 | 18.33 | 13.40 | 19.73 | 2.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.25 | 18.27 | 13.19 | 24.14 | 3.29 |
| P/FCF | 32.58 | 24.06 | 19.42 | 54.26 | 18.92 |
| P/FFO | 16.77 | 15.39 | 10.83 | 30.45 | 6.40 |
| P/TBV | 2.22 | 2.22 | 2.03 | 2.36 | 0.14 |
| P/AFFO | 16.79 | 15.45 | 10.86 | 30.48 | 6.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.22 | 2.22 | 2.03 | 2.36 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.81 | 9.79 | 7.94 | 11.01 | 0.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HCXY's fair value at $20.27 vs the current price of $24.80, implying -18.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.01 (P10) to $26.79 (P90), with a median of $21.41.
HCXY's current P/E of 13.4x compares to the industry median of 9.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +38.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for HCXY.
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HCXY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (65.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 830.0% to approximately $27. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.