MODEL VERDICT
Hillenbrand, Inc. (HI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $31.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $31.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $31.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $31.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $31.98 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $40.63 | +27.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $31.84 | -0.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $18.25 | -42.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $5.80 | -81.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $19.71 | -38.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $59.70 | +86.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $59.53 | +86.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $18.41 | -42.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $5.87 | -81.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.87 | +12.2% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 44× | 48× | 52× (Current) | 56× | 60× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $28 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
| Conservative (7%) | $29 | $31 | $34 | $36 | $39 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $30 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $40 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.14 | 15.71 | 5.89 | 52.00 | 17.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.12 | 17.37 | 11.41 | 72.88 | 23.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.76 | 12.40 | 8.65 | 14.54 | 1.95 |
| P/FCF | 560.34 | 19.04 | 7.84 | 3726.98 | 1396.98 |
| P/FFO | 15.24 | 11.39 | 4.82 | 41.44 | 13.12 |
| P/AFFO | 23.84 | 13.06 | 5.36 | 84.43 | 29.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.36 | 2.71 | 1.49 | 3.18 | 0.66 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.16 | 1.17 | 0.68 | 1.75 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates HI's fair value at $35.87 vs the current price of $31.98, implying +12.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.68 (P10) to $67.76 (P90), with a median of $35.11.
HI's current P/E of 52.4x compares to the industry median of 29.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +75.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.1x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover HI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $32.00 — $32.00), implying +0.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HI trades at the 7920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (7.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11390.0% to approximately $68. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.