MODEL VERDICT
Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $66.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $68.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $68.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $67.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $71.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $54.71 | -18.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $55.39 | -17.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $45.69 | -31.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $85.01 | +27.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $39.72 | -40.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $100.34 | +50.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $130.52 | +95.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $81.73 | +22.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $73.51 | +10.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $47.58 | -28.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $85.28 | +27.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.73 | +13.3% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 38× | 42× | 46× (Current) | 50× | 54× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $61 | $67 | $74 | $80 | $87 |
| Conservative (18%) | $65 | $72 | $78 | $85 | $92 |
| Base Case (26.9%) | $70 | $77 | $85 | $92 | $99 |
| Bull Case (36%) | $75 | $83 | $91 | $99 | $107 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.46 | 36.89 | 18.03 | 121.11 | 34.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.01 | 22.70 | 15.85 | 58.23 | 14.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.42 | 14.10 | 11.62 | 28.92 | 5.95 |
| P/FCF | 24.36 | 22.61 | 15.63 | 39.58 | 9.14 |
| P/FFO | 17.97 | 15.50 | 11.83 | 31.72 | 6.73 |
| P/AFFO | 24.67 | 21.18 | 15.03 | 44.53 | 9.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.54 | 2.23 | 1.72 | 4.82 | 1.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.52 | 2.12 | 1.79 | 3.93 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HLIO's fair value at $75.73 vs the current price of $66.84, implying +13.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.82 (P10) to $72.73 (P90), with a median of $64.10.
HLIO's current P/E of 46.1x compares to the industry median of 31.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +46.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover HLIO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $77.00 (range: $74.00 — $80.00), implying +15.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HLIO trades at the 7710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (44.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HLIO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10570.0% to approximately $138. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.