MODEL VERDICT
Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (HR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $17.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $17.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $17.14 | Below threshold | -0.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $33.31 | +80.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $20.18 | +9.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $22.74 | +23.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $27.23 | +47.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $21.59 | +17.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.53 | +49.2% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 74.40 | 72.12 | 64.34 | 89.04 | 10.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.98 | 14.61 | 5.21 | 36.51 | 10.23 |
| P/FCF | 34.64 | 24.53 | 12.97 | 67.00 | 22.56 |
| P/FFO | 30.57 | 20.13 | 13.12 | 91.35 | 27.56 |
| P/TBV | 2.04 | 1.41 | 0.99 | 4.03 | 1.24 |
| P/AFFO | 32.46 | 28.51 | 20.60 | 50.79 | 12.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.01 | 1.27 | 0.94 | 4.01 | 1.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.90 | 7.96 | 4.92 | 16.70 | 4.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates HR's fair value at $27.53 vs the current price of $18.45, implying +49.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.38 (P10) to $43.53 (P90), with a median of $28.64.
HR's current P/E of -26.0x compares to the industry median of 39.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -165.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover HR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.67 (range: $19.00 — $21.00), implying +6.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (20), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.