MODEL VERDICT
Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (HR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $19.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 10 REIT peers | $13.85 | -28.0% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $20.08 | +4.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $20.69 | +7.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $25.02 | +30.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $20.32 | +5.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $24.15 | +25.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.25 | +20.8% | 100% | 75 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 140.12 | 125.90 | 70.31 | 238.36 | 70.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 135.72 | 106.03 | 53.88 | 276.92 | 104.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.31 | 19.81 | 15.12 | 25.04 | 4.03 |
| P/FCF | 34.16 | 34.22 | 17.44 | 47.11 | 12.30 |
| P/FFO | 57.11 | 18.41 | 9.90 | 299.81 | 107.08 |
| P/TBV | 1.89 | 1.27 | 0.66 | 3.70 | 1.21 |
| P/AFFO | 24.68 | 26.77 | 14.81 | 29.49 | 5.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.88 | 1.27 | 0.64 | 3.68 | 1.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.29 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.78 | 5.25 | 4.86 | 10.08 | 2.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates HR's fair value at $23.25 vs the current price of $19.25, implying +20.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.02 (P10) to $52.32 (P90), with a median of $27.67.
HR's current P/E of -27.1x compares to the industry median of 31.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -185.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 140.1x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover HR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.33 (range: $18.00 — $21.00), implying +0.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (20), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.