MODEL VERDICT
H&R Block, Inc. (HRB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $31.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $30.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $32.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $30.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $29.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $62.43 | +99.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $86.22 | +175.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $89.10 | +185.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $68.56 | +119.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $86.79 | +177.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $71.85 | +129.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $73.59 | +135.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $57.49 | +84.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $89.36 | +186.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $68.49 | +119.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.63 | +142.0% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $18 | $23 | $32 | $41 | $50 |
| Conservative (7%) | $19 | $23 | $33 | $42 | $51 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $19 | $24 | $34 | $43 | $53 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $20 | $25 | $35 | $45 | $55 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.17 | 11.42 | 7.65 | 13.78 | 2.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.32 | 9.76 | 7.30 | 46.79 | 14.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.40 | 8.23 | 5.93 | 12.30 | 2.21 |
| P/FCF | 24.62 | 9.94 | 7.76 | 115.19 | 39.96 |
| P/FFO | 10.40 | 8.99 | 6.39 | 19.39 | 4.25 |
| P/AFFO | 14.13 | 9.87 | 6.92 | 39.12 | 11.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 65.36 | 29.58 | 8.96 | 233.06 | 79.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.67 | 1.59 | 1.19 | 2.15 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HRB's fair value at $75.63 vs the current price of $31.25, implying +142.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.32 (P10) to $92.12 (P90), with a median of $74.57.
HRB's current P/E of 7.1x compares to the industry median of 20.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -64.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.2x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover HRB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $41.00 (range: $32.00 — $50.00), implying +31.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (8), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HRB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (19.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8810.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.