MODEL VERDICT
Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $73.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $77.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $78.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $77.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $75.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $100.53 | +36.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $125.00 | +69.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $99.73 | +34.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $104.91 | +41.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $107.08 | +44.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $84.10 | +13.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $9.26 | -87.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $146.28 | +97.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $183.79 | +148.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $99.78 | +35.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $105.37 | +42.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.84 | +24.2% | 100% | 94 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $63 | $70 | $77 | $83 | $90 |
| Conservative (5%) | $65 | $72 | $79 | $86 | $93 |
| Base Case (3.2%) | $64 | $71 | $78 | $84 | $91 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $65 | $72 | $78 | $85 | $92 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.59 | 22.69 | 17.42 | 23.96 | 2.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.17 | 18.00 | 14.09 | 19.94 | 2.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.96 | 11.82 | 10.77 | 13.51 | 0.98 |
| P/FCF | 18.79 | 17.43 | 13.38 | 28.26 | 4.85 |
| P/FFO | 14.20 | 14.37 | 12.87 | 16.31 | 1.27 |
| P/TBV | 12.97 | 9.52 | 7.22 | 27.55 | 8.28 |
| P/AFFO | 16.97 | 16.82 | 14.57 | 19.29 | 1.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.16 | 2.22 | 1.83 | 2.54 | 0.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HSIC's fair value at $91.84 vs the current price of $73.93, implying +24.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $92.26 (P10) to $108.06 (P90), with a median of $100.06.
HSIC's current P/E of 22.6x compares to the industry median of 30.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -25.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
32 analysts cover HSIC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $86.43 (range: $64.00 — $100.00), implying +16.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (15), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HSIC trades at the 1670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HSIC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2590.0% to approximately $93. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.