MODEL VERDICT
Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $38.69 | +10.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $27.37 | -21.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $32.51 | -6.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $29.60 | -15.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $38.69 | +10.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.20 | +9.4% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $24 | $29 | $35 | $40 | $45 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $30 | $36 | $41 | $47 |
| Base Case (3.6%) | $24 | $30 | $35 | $41 | $46 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $25 | $30 | $36 | $41 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.08 | 9.95 | 7.12 | 181.21 | 64.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 91.91 | 15.17 | 5.89 | 562.12 | 207.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.12 | 13.75 | 5.45 | 95.68 | 31.87 |
| P/FCF | 8.60 | 8.79 | 5.79 | 11.51 | 1.76 |
| P/FFO | 15.60 | 8.81 | 6.46 | 58.32 | 18.89 |
| P/TBV | 1.27 | 1.32 | 1.11 | 1.42 | 0.11 |
| P/AFFO | 34.75 | 10.00 | 7.09 | 185.06 | 66.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.09 | 1.39 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.95 | 1.88 | 1.78 | 2.19 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates HWBK's fair value at $38.20 vs the current price of $34.91, implying +9.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.69 (P10) to $72.15 (P90), with a median of $40.84.
HWBK's current P/E of 13.4x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -9.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
No analyst coverage data is available for HWBK.
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HWBK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.