MODEL VERDICT
Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $167.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $170.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $151.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $147.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $148.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $70.80 | -57.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $77.40 | -53.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $69.78 | -58.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $86.91 | -48.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $93.32 | -44.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $87.54 | -47.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $242.76 | +44.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $69.75 | -58.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $64.24 | -61.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $68.98 | -58.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $85.09 | -49.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.31 | -43.7% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 39× | 42× (Current) | 45× | 48× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $159 | $173 | $186 | $199 | $213 |
| Conservative (16%) | $168 | $183 | $197 | $211 | $225 |
| Base Case (24.8%) | $181 | $196 | $211 | $226 | $241 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $194 | $210 | $226 | $242 | $258 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.30 | 20.44 | 15.82 | 35.25 | 7.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.61 | 16.93 | 13.33 | 26.11 | 5.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.49 | 12.05 | 9.68 | 19.72 | 4.46 |
| P/FCF | 34.07 | 36.47 | 13.89 | 56.95 | 17.15 |
| P/FFO | 15.76 | 13.18 | 10.64 | 24.05 | 5.99 |
| P/TBV | 8.73 | 7.10 | 4.87 | 17.02 | 4.76 |
| P/AFFO | 26.24 | 21.94 | 14.64 | 38.47 | 10.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.93 | 3.16 | 2.26 | 6.46 | 1.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.69 | 1.41 | 0.88 | 3.05 | 0.88 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HWKN's fair value at $94.31 vs the current price of $167.49, implying -43.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $75.37 (P10) to $94.25 (P90), with a median of $84.68.
HWKN's current P/E of 41.6x compares to the industry median of 17.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +140.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover HWKN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.8% is 2.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (9.4%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$119. (2) Multiple compression: HWKN trades at the 8400th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.3×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HWKN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2890.0% to approximately $119. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.