MODEL VERDICT
Independent Bank Corp. (INDB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $77.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $77.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $77.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $79.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $79.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $59.25 | -23.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $90.23 | +16.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $76.22 | -1.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $86.56 | +11.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $59.24 | -23.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $83.01 | +7.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $76.73 | -0.9% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $60 | $69 | $78 | $88 | $97 |
| Conservative (5%) | $62 | $71 | $81 | $90 | $100 |
| Base Case (-2.1%) | $58 | $66 | $75 | $84 | $93 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $57 | $66 | $75 | $83 | $92 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.75 | 15.98 | 12.14 | 23.50 | 3.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.87 | 12.38 | 4.83 | 13.47 | 3.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.64 | 11.11 | 3.99 | 12.24 | 3.03 |
| P/FCF | 18.07 | 13.68 | 9.81 | 46.71 | 12.86 |
| P/FFO | 14.15 | 14.17 | 10.55 | 18.49 | 2.73 |
| P/TBV | 1.89 | 2.07 | 1.37 | 2.42 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 15.67 | 15.41 | 11.20 | 22.12 | 3.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.29 | 1.36 | 0.91 | 1.81 | 0.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.45 | 4.79 | 2.80 | 5.51 | 1.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates INDB's fair value at $76.73 vs the current price of $77.45, implying -0.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $76.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $72.74 (P10) to $85.54 (P90), with a median of $78.93.
INDB's current P/E of 17.1x compares to the industry median of 13.1x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +30.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover INDB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $88.33 (range: $80.00 — $97.00), implying +14.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: INDB trades at the 8070th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INDB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3300.0% to approximately $103. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.