MODEL VERDICT
Indivior Pharmaceuticals Inc (INDV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $37.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $33.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $32.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $32.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $30.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $66.21 | +75.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $30.08 | -20.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $48.87 | +29.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $73.65 | +95.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $22.63 | -39.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $14.74 | -60.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $46.57 | +23.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $97.48 | +158.8% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $32 | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 |
| Conservative (7%) | $33 | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $34 | $38 | $41 | $45 | $49 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $35 | $39 | $43 | $47 | $50 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 389.90 | 21.88 | 2.83 | 1082.98 | 524.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.78 | 16.72 | 8.54 | 31.08 | 11.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.57 | 16.84 | 7.85 | 28.02 | 10.11 |
| P/FCF | 82.41 | 8.34 | 2.73 | 236.17 | 133.19 |
| P/FFO | 21.86 | 15.84 | 2.42 | 53.33 | 22.17 |
| P/TBV | 26.24 | 21.99 | 2.87 | 53.87 | 25.76 |
| P/AFFO | 217.26 | 19.97 | 2.53 | 826.57 | 406.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 21.77 | 13.12 | 1.88 | 58.97 | 25.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.28 | 1.98 | 0.50 | 3.71 | 1.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates INDV's fair value at $97.48 vs the current price of $37.66, implying +158.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $97.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.99 (P10) to $205.79 (P90), with a median of $103.38.
INDV's current P/E of 23.0x compares to the industry median of 29.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -22.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 389.9x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
3 analysts cover INDV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $44.67 (range: $36.00 — $50.00), implying +18.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INDV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 27730.0% to approximately $142. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.