MODEL VERDICT
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $56.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $56.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $57.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $56.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $54.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $30.29 | -46.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $28.19 | -50.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $112.87 | +99.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $58.31 | +2.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $40.84 | -28.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $68.62 | +21.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $117.31 | +106.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $98.65 | +74.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $114.27 | +101.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $58.81 | +3.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $662.24 | +1068.0% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $41 | $51 | $61 | $71 | $81 |
| Conservative (7%) | $42 | $52 | $62 | $73 | $83 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $43 | $54 | $65 | $75 | $86 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $44 | $56 | $67 | $78 | $89 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 2194.38 | 1460.65 | 34.97 | 5821.23 | 2757.14 |
| P/TBV | 13.96 | 12.63 | 3.51 | 27.38 | 8.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.96 | 12.63 | 3.51 | 27.38 | 8.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.26 | 17.34 | 3.01 | 42.50 | 13.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates INSP's fair value at $662.24 vs the current price of $56.70, implying +1068.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $662.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.91 (P10) to $1136.26 (P90), with a median of $467.66.
INSP's current P/E of 11.6x compares to the industry median of 23.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -49.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
27 analysts cover INSP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $91.33 (range: $56.00 — $180.00), implying +61.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for INSP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.