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Intuit Inc. (INTU) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Intuit Inc. (INTU)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$554.58
→
Intrinsic$658.64
+19%
$436.49$658.64$1,100.31
Market implies 15% growth for 5 years
INTU shows 19% potential upside using 20% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $555, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (15%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $436 → Bull $1100. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$830$901$977$1058
10%$561$608$659$712
12%$420$454$491$530
14%$332$359$388$418

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($1100) offers 98% upside at 24% growth, 8% discount
  • 16% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (15%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($436) implies 21% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$7.28B
Year 2$8.71B
Year 3$10.42B
Year 4$12.47B
Year 5$14.92B
Terminal$236.38B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate19.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$6.08BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is INTU stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

INTU trades at $554.58 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $546.71, implying -16% downside. Using a 9.5% WACC and 19.7% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($817.44) suggests limited upside.

What is INTU's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $6.08B, projected at 19.7% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.75B net debt and dividing by 0.28B shares: Bear $362.02 | Base $546.71 | Bull $817.44. Current price $554.58 implies -16% to base case.

How is INTU's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 19.7% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($158.47B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 26.1x.