MODEL VERDICT
Intuit Inc. (INTU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $409.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $380.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $399.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $421.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $646.90 | Below threshold | -32.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $471.12 | +15.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $420.28 | +2.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $354.95 | -13.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $420.26 | +2.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $427.67 | +4.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $375.68 | -8.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $315.90 | -22.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $231.03 | -43.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $235.12 | -42.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $375.50 | -8.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $423.24 | +3.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $526.52 | +28.7% | 100% | 89 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $376 | $405 | $434 | $463 | $492 |
| Conservative (10%) | $389 | $419 | $449 | $479 | $509 |
| Base Case (14.6%) | $407 | $439 | $470 | $501 | $533 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $425 | $458 | $491 | $524 | $556 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 60.14 | 54.89 | 44.39 | 85.19 | 14.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 47.52 | 43.95 | 35.59 | 67.90 | 11.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 41.35 | 40.72 | 32.45 | 61.31 | 10.04 |
| P/FCF | 38.37 | 36.96 | 30.20 | 56.19 | 9.29 |
| P/FFO | 48.95 | 47.57 | 38.80 | 72.41 | 12.04 |
| P/TBV | 169.02 | 104.40 | 29.29 | 438.00 | 191.63 |
| P/AFFO | 52.27 | 50.12 | 41.16 | 76.35 | 12.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.15 | 10.24 | 6.72 | 19.64 | 5.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.91 | 10.96 | 8.69 | 18.23 | 3.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates INTU's fair value at $526.52 vs the current price of $409.03, implying +28.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $526.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $456.45 (P10) to $606.51 (P90), with a median of $530.60.
INTU's current P/E of 29.9x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +15.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 60.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
42 analysts cover INTU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $728.11 (range: $624.00 — $875.00), implying +78.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (32), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INTU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8590.0% to approximately $761. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.