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Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$84.67
→
Intrinsic$120.43
+42%
$79.78$120.43$201.21
Market implies 16% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests UBER could have 42% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $85, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (16%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $80 → Bull $201. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$153$166$179$194
10%$103$112$120$130
12%$77$83$89$96
14%$60$65$70$76

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($201) offers 138% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
  • 30% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (16%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($80) implies 6% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$8.62B
Year 2$10.77B
Year 3$13.47B
Year 4$16.83B
Year 5$21.04B
Terminal$333.43B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$6.89BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is UBER stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

UBER trades at $84.67, within 10% of our $81.20 intrinsic value estimate. At 9.5% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $53.65 (bear) to $121.59 (bull).

What is UBER's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $6.89B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $5.00B net debt and dividing by 2.15B shares: Bear $53.65 | Base $81.20 | Bull $121.59. Current price $84.67 implies -5% to base case.

How is UBER's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($179.63B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 26.1x.