MODEL VERDICT
Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $77.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $83.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $85.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $83.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $85.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $87.09 | +11.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $75.86 | -2.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $46.31 | -40.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $75.71 | -2.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $73.53 | -5.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $76.31 | -2.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $74.56 | -4.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $91.06 | +16.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $48.25 | -38.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $75.59 | -3.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $81.03 | +3.9% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $69 | $75 | $81 | $87 | $93 |
| Conservative (7%) | $71 | $77 | $83 | $90 | $96 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $73 | $80 | $86 | $93 | $99 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $76 | $82 | $89 | $95 | $102 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.83 | 45.04 | 35.30 | 54.63 | 6.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 71.14 | 29.92 | 24.90 | 298.87 | 100.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.91 | 22.60 | 18.09 | 41.59 | 8.21 |
| P/FCF | 28.77 | 26.04 | 20.15 | 47.26 | 8.67 |
| P/FFO | 28.69 | 26.47 | 20.66 | 45.99 | 8.09 |
| P/AFFO | 32.25 | 29.20 | 22.73 | 52.77 | 9.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.02 | 3.13 | 1.90 | 4.10 | 0.74 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.39 | 4.39 | 3.62 | 5.09 | 0.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates IR's fair value at $81.03 vs the current price of $77.99, implying +3.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $81.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $73.07 (P10) to $104.30 (P90), with a median of $85.78.
IR's current P/E of 53.8x compares to the industry median of 31.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +68.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.8x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover IR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $99.50 (range: $90.00 — $110.00), implying +27.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: IR trades at the 8540th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (44.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4500.0% to approximately $113. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.