MODEL VERDICT
Independence Realty Trust, Inc. (IRT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $16.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $15.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $16.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $15.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $15.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $14.72 | -9.4% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 7 REIT peers | $10.71 | -34.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $16.10 | -0.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $14.88 | -8.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $37.37 | +130.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $6.01 | -63.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $7.53 | -53.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $18.59 | +14.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $19.57 | +20.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.03 | +10.9% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 58× | 63× | 68× (Current) | 73× | 78× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
| Conservative (7%) | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 167.79 | 116.71 | 72.83 | 346.25 | 108.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 52.50 | 46.36 | 30.72 | 82.65 | 17.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.23 | 18.43 | 14.42 | 42.73 | 9.67 |
| P/FCF | 75.65 | 36.24 | 28.01 | 305.57 | 101.74 |
| P/FFO | 15.88 | 16.85 | 10.16 | 23.35 | 4.21 |
| P/TBV | 1.29 | 1.14 | 0.79 | 2.05 | 0.46 |
| P/AFFO | 35.74 | 33.42 | 16.77 | 62.30 | 16.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.14 | 0.78 | 2.05 | 0.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.86 | 6.24 | 5.19 | 11.34 | 2.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates IRT's fair value at $18.03 vs the current price of $16.25, implying +10.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.07 (P10) to $20.81 (P90), with a median of $18.36.
IRT's current P/E of 67.7x compares to the industry median of 25.1x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +170.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 167.8x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
27 analysts cover IRT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.08 (range: $18.00 — $22.00), implying +23.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IRT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (1.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3400.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.