MODEL VERDICT
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $457.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $482.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $469.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $468.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $450.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $175.55 | -61.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $201.20 | -56.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $204.29 | -55.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $143.22 | -68.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $206.32 | -54.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $181.40 | -60.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $266.68 | -41.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $126.35 | -72.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $108.78 | -76.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $203.62 | -55.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $144.01 | -68.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $309.48 | -32.4% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 53× | 58× (Current) | 63× | 68× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $411 | $453 | $496 | $539 | $582 |
| Conservative (14%) | $431 | $476 | $521 | $566 | $611 |
| Base Case (21.8%) | $460 | $508 | $556 | $604 | $652 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $489 | $540 | $591 | $642 | $692 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 73.44 | 72.70 | 51.18 | 92.76 | 12.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 69.89 | 68.70 | 50.60 | 92.20 | 13.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 57.59 | 55.86 | 44.18 | 72.65 | 9.93 |
| P/FCF | 101.50 | 86.08 | 60.24 | 160.85 | 37.36 |
| P/FFO | 60.10 | 58.14 | 44.74 | 73.28 | 9.45 |
| P/TBV | 10.35 | 10.50 | 8.96 | 11.70 | 1.27 |
| P/AFFO | 87.01 | 83.12 | 61.25 | 112.91 | 19.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.01 | 10.06 | 8.51 | 11.45 | 1.30 |
| P/S Ratio | 19.54 | 20.41 | 15.44 | 23.02 | 3.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ISRG's fair value at $309.48 vs the current price of $457.78, implying -32.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $309.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $275.76 (P10) to $336.52 (P90), with a median of $305.87.
ISRG's current P/E of 58.2x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +124.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 73.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
55 analysts cover ISRG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $622.60 (range: $525.00 — $750.00), implying +36.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (38), Hold (12), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ISRG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2020.0% to approximately $550. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.