MODEL VERDICT
Itron, Inc. (ITRI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $85.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $88.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $98.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $97.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $94.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $137.54 | +61.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $117.70 | +37.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $179.39 | +110.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $244.02 | +185.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $138.63 | +62.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $237.22 | +177.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $158.47 | +85.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $171.28 | +100.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $179.46 | +110.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $235.57 | +175.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $318.59 | +273.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $61 | $74 | $88 | $102 | $115 |
| Conservative (7%) | $62 | $76 | $90 | $104 | $118 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $64 | $79 | $93 | $107 | $122 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $66 | $81 | $96 | $111 | $126 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.82 | 28.37 | 14.26 | 68.25 | 24.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 54.19 | 31.09 | 13.64 | 145.51 | 48.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 122.74 | 19.83 | 12.33 | 696.43 | 253.45 |
| P/FCF | 95.67 | 29.94 | 11.24 | 480.62 | 170.41 |
| P/FFO | 179.72 | 22.67 | 12.21 | 1047.45 | 383.77 |
| P/TBV | 17.63 | 15.37 | 13.81 | 25.99 | 5.63 |
| P/AFFO | 30.69 | 27.51 | 13.06 | 61.27 | 18.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.14 | 2.66 | 1.92 | 4.59 | 0.99 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.63 | 1.59 | 1.27 | 2.05 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ITRI's fair value at $318.59 vs the current price of $85.40, implying +273.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $318.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $167.56 (P10) to $597.80 (P90), with a median of $333.95.
ITRI's current P/E of 13.1x compares to the industry median of 27.6x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -52.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.8x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover ITRI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $137.00 (range: $128.00 — $155.00), implying +60.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (18), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.3% is 9.2 percentage points above the 4-year average (3.1%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$57. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ITRI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (3.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3290.0% to approximately $57. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.