MODEL VERDICT
ITT Inc. (ITT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $209.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $218.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $219.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $215.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $216.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $142.80 | -32.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $173.81 | -17.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $169.18 | -19.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $150.32 | -28.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $195.19 | -7.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $192.58 | -8.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $602.88 | +187.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $167.10 | -20.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $128.01 | -39.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $179.67 | -14.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $150.72 | -28.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $191.07 | -9.0% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $205 | $227 | $249 | $270 | $292 |
| Conservative (32%) | $226 | $250 | $274 | $298 | $322 |
| Base Case (49.1%) | $255 | $282 | $310 | $337 | $364 |
| Bull Case (66%) | $284 | $315 | $345 | $376 | $406 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.50 | 24.06 | 18.52 | 92.80 | 26.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.78 | 17.70 | 14.31 | 20.77 | 1.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.30 | 14.85 | 11.68 | 17.94 | 2.17 |
| P/FCF | 26.11 | 24.91 | 18.02 | 39.03 | 7.02 |
| P/FFO | 20.73 | 18.99 | 14.31 | 36.40 | 7.45 |
| P/TBV | 7.58 | 6.67 | 5.81 | 13.36 | 2.60 |
| P/AFFO | 27.42 | 23.95 | 18.32 | 55.57 | 12.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.54 | 3.39 | 3.01 | 4.25 | 0.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.89 | 3.01 | 2.27 | 3.52 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ITT's fair value at $191.07 vs the current price of $209.89, implying -9.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $191.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $151.63 (P10) to $184.78 (P90), with a median of $167.30.
ITT's current P/E of 34.4x compares to the industry median of 27.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +24.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.5x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
22 analysts cover ITT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $229.67 (range: $220.00 — $245.00), implying +9.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ITT trades at the 6250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (33.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ITT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2270.0% to approximately $258. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.