MODEL VERDICT
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $8.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $8.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $8.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $8.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $4.43 | -46.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $12.28 | +47.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $8.29 | -0.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $12.86 | +54.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $16.57 | +98.9% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $8.79 | +5.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.95 | +31.4% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $6 | $8 | $11 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $11 | $15 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $12 | $15 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $7 | $9 | $12 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.15 | 6.56 | 5.50 | 12.38 | 3.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 105.81 | 21.33 | 16.95 | 317.70 | 132.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.10 | 19.06 | 16.92 | 21.33 | 2.21 |
| P/FCF | 3.39 | 3.28 | 1.56 | 6.10 | 1.60 |
| P/TBV | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 0.71 | 0.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 0.71 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 23.06 | 5.41 | 1.64 | 88.65 | 36.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates IVR's fair value at $10.95 vs the current price of $8.33, implying +31.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.17 (P10) to $16.28 (P90), with a median of $11.52.
IVR's current P/E of 5.4x compares to the industry median of 8.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -35.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.1x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover IVR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying +8.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IVR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (50.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7960.0% to approximately $15. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.