MODEL VERDICT
James Hardie Industries plc (JHX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $20.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $21.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $21.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $19.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $21.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $22.24 | +7.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $26.78 | +29.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $21.42 | +3.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $23.07 | +11.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $24.17 | +16.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $23.57 | +13.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $28.21 | +36.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $33.17 | +60.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $29.63 | +43.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $21.42 | +3.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $23.10 | +11.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.18 | +127.8% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Conservative (8%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $27 |
| Base Case (12.7%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $28 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.21 | 33.63 | 17.42 | 68.97 | 18.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.83 | 24.01 | 12.94 | 42.17 | 12.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.89 | 19.97 | 10.46 | 30.99 | 8.44 |
| P/FCF | 200.64 | 27.97 | 16.02 | 1057.14 | 419.76 |
| P/FFO | 25.34 | 24.99 | 12.88 | 45.56 | 11.74 |
| P/TBV | 13.80 | 13.66 | 4.92 | 26.75 | 7.48 |
| P/AFFO | 103.28 | 63.13 | 22.03 | 283.41 | 95.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.55 | 8.93 | 4.15 | 17.08 | 4.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.90 | 3.47 | 2.21 | 6.23 | 1.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates JHX's fair value at $47.18 vs the current price of $20.71, implying +127.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.26 (P10) to $72.01 (P90), with a median of $37.80.
JHX's current P/E of 21.1x compares to the industry median of 21.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -3.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
16 analysts cover JHX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.50 (range: $21.00 — $30.00), implying +18.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JHX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 101380.0% to approximately $231. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.