MODEL VERDICT
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $173.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $177.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $148.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $138.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $142.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $308.91 | +77.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $536.85 | +209.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $318.65 | +83.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $381.57 | +119.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $277.01 | +59.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $664.59 | +282.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $690.26 | +297.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $314.29 | +80.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $361.91 | +108.3% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $167 | $182 | $197 | $212 | $228 |
| Conservative (20%) | $178 | $194 | $211 | $227 | $243 |
| Base Case (30.2%) | $194 | $212 | $229 | $247 | $264 |
| Bull Case (41%) | $210 | $229 | $248 | $267 | $286 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.88 | 24.48 | 16.97 | 54.64 | 14.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.49 | 20.68 | 14.27 | 215.43 | 74.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.88 | 11.79 | 9.66 | 20.20 | 3.61 |
| P/FCF | 26.71 | 13.58 | 10.15 | 69.52 | 28.70 |
| P/FFO | 13.45 | 15.63 | 7.03 | 20.38 | 5.81 |
| P/TBV | 2.28 | 2.29 | 1.90 | 2.62 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 59.83 | 54.08 | 19.46 | 99.18 | 34.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.06 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 2.45 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.35 | 1.34 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates KALU's fair value at $361.91 vs the current price of $173.72, implying +108.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $361.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $307.75 (P10) to $449.87 (P90), with a median of $374.33.
KALU's current P/E of 25.7x compares to the industry median of 47.1x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -45.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.9x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover KALU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $160.00 (range: $137.00 — $183.00), implying -7.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (11), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KALU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2370.0% to approximately $215. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.