MODEL VERDICT
Kforce Inc. (KFRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $44.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $32.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $30.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $30.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $28.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $32.07 | -27.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $39.11 | -11.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $46.03 | +4.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $31.24 | -29.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $59.45 | +35.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $28.23 | -35.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $75.82 | +72.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $61.12 | +38.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $45.53 | +3.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $23.00 | -47.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.59 | +14.9% | 100% | 76 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $36 | $40 | $44 | $48 | $52 |
| Conservative (5%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 | $54 |
| Base Case (-5.6%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $44 | $48 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $33 | $36 | $40 | $43 | $47 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.35 | 17.26 | 14.90 | 21.64 | 3.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.62 | 13.49 | 10.02 | 16.30 | 2.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.52 | 12.48 | 9.22 | 15.03 | 2.45 |
| P/FCF | 14.91 | 13.74 | 8.77 | 24.01 | 4.79 |
| P/FFO | 15.27 | 13.61 | 6.89 | 20.46 | 4.93 |
| P/TBV | 8.53 | 7.97 | 5.52 | 11.21 | 2.37 |
| P/AFFO | 17.95 | 21.53 | 7.46 | 22.61 | 5.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.43 | 6.17 | 4.41 | 8.47 | 1.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.72 | 0.70 | 0.41 | 1.01 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates KFRC's fair value at $50.59 vs the current price of $44.03, implying +14.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.15 (P10) to $44.38 (P90), with a median of $39.15.
KFRC's current P/E of 22.5x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -4.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
10 analysts cover KFRC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $71.00 (range: $71.00 — $71.00), implying +61.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KFRC trades at the 7000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KFRC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7510.0% to approximately $77. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.