MODEL VERDICT
Huron Consulting Group Inc. (HURN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $131.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $126.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $129.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $131.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $120.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $163.62 | +24.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $149.25 | +13.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $126.35 | -3.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $231.37 | +76.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $149.58 | +13.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $254.71 | +94.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $149.64 | +14.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $121.00 | -7.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $125.08 | -4.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $232.66 | +77.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $225.56 | +71.8% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $109 | $121 | $134 | $146 | $158 |
| Conservative (7%) | $112 | $124 | $137 | $149 | $162 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $116 | $128 | $141 | $154 | $167 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $119 | $133 | $146 | $159 | $172 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.00 | 24.78 | 17.27 | 37.15 | 8.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.65 | 18.58 | 16.14 | 28.44 | 5.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.54 | 15.86 | 14.42 | 19.60 | 2.11 |
| P/FCF | 83.92 | 17.00 | 10.72 | 488.67 | 178.54 |
| P/FFO | 118.52 | 21.20 | 12.99 | 715.05 | 263.08 |
| P/AFFO | 26.58 | 23.69 | 16.00 | 44.06 | 9.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.37 | 2.83 | 1.90 | 5.88 | 1.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.20 | 1.83 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HURN's fair value at $225.56 vs the current price of $131.29, implying +71.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $225.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $154.92 (P10) to $387.89 (P90), with a median of $219.84.
HURN's current P/E of 22.5x compares to the industry median of 21.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +3.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.0x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
9 analysts cover HURN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $200.00 (range: $160.00 — $240.00), implying +52.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HURN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6590.0% to approximately $218. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.