MODEL VERDICT
Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (KGEI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 51 analyst estimates | $4.57 | +18.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 61 industry peers | $5.92 | +53.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 49 industry peers | $5.97 | +55.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 42 industry peers | $2.62 | -31.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 53 industry peers | $6.56 | +70.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 43 industry peers | $2.68 | -30.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 62 industry peers | $3.83 | -0.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 63 industry peers | $3.52 | -8.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 49 industry peers | $5.97 | +55.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 43 industry peers | $2.72 | -29.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.08 | +32.0% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $2 | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
| Conservative (7%) | $2 | $3 | $4 | $5 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $2 | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $2 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates KGEI's fair value at $5.08 vs the current price of $3.85, implying +32.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.76 (P10) to $5.83 (P90), with a median of $4.78.
KGEI's current P/E of 7.5x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (49 peers in the group). This represents a -35.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover KGEI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KGEI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (80.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 22390.0% to approximately $12. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.