MODEL VERDICT
KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $103.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $101.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $103.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $103.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $91.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $106.81 | +3.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $167.93 | +62.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $207.48 | +100.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $24.04 | -76.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $112.97 | +9.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $97.55 | -5.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $104.40 | +0.7% | 100% | 81 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $87 | $97 | $107 | $117 | $127 |
| Conservative (5%) | $90 | $100 | $110 | $121 | $131 |
| Base Case (-1.5%) | $84 | $94 | $103 | $113 | $123 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $84 | $93 | $103 | $113 | $122 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.53 | 11.03 | 8.24 | 45.09 | 14.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.43 | 9.69 | 5.12 | 49.08 | 15.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.43 | 9.69 | 5.12 | 49.08 | 15.52 |
| P/TBV | 1.02 | 0.70 | 0.41 | 2.57 | 0.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 0.63 | 0.41 | 2.24 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.96 | 5.27 | 2.93 | 6.42 | 1.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates KKR's fair value at $104.40 vs the current price of $103.68, implying +0.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $104.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $86.83 (P10) to $125.48 (P90), with a median of $105.53.
KKR's current P/E of 31.6x compares to the industry median of 32.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -2.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.5x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
26 analysts cover KKR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $143.00 (range: $119.00 — $187.00), implying +37.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KKR trades at the 8250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KKR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (28.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1030.0% to approximately $114. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.