MODEL VERDICT
The Kroger Co. (KR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $67.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $67.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $68.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $66.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $67.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $86.02 | +26.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $57.23 | -15.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $29.94 | -55.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $136.79 | +101.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $13.77 | -79.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $149.61 | +120.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $115.04 | +69.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $120.85 | +78.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $29.93 | -55.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $158.77 | +134.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.24 | -0.8% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 40× | 44× (Current) | 48× | 52× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $57 | $63 | $69 | $75 | $82 |
| Conservative (5%) | $58 | $65 | $71 | $78 | $84 |
| Base Case (-14.0%) | $48 | $53 | $58 | $64 | $69 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $45 | $50 | $55 | $60 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.86 | 15.44 | 9.71 | 40.57 | 10.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.42 | 17.07 | 11.17 | 32.95 | 6.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.00 | 7.64 | 6.72 | 10.72 | 1.33 |
| P/FCF | 15.11 | 12.22 | 6.28 | 26.29 | 7.62 |
| P/FFO | 5.97 | 5.60 | 4.16 | 8.29 | 1.40 |
| P/TBV | 7.28 | 5.27 | 4.26 | 16.16 | 4.25 |
| P/AFFO | 16.92 | 13.82 | 8.02 | 37.86 | 9.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.89 | 3.24 | 2.60 | 6.89 | 1.62 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates KR's fair value at $67.24 vs the current price of $67.77, implying -0.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.78 (P10) to $85.94 (P90), with a median of $72.94.
KR's current P/E of 44.0x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +126.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
44 analysts cover KR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $74.75 (range: $68.00 — $83.00), implying +10.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (17), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KR trades at the 8750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (1.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1220.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.