MODEL VERDICT
Ladder Capital Corp (LADR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $10.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $10.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $9.15 | -11.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $11.37 | +10.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $7.82 | -24.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $9.46 | -8.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $8.47 | -18.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $9.78 | -5.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $8.08 | -21.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $7.65 | -26.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.74 | -5.8% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $10 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.66 | 14.95 | 8.88 | 26.64 | 6.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.53 | 19.47 | 9.74 | 21.45 | 4.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.75 | 17.56 | 8.84 | 37.65 | 9.54 |
| P/FCF | 12.18 | 10.51 | 7.96 | 18.73 | 3.79 |
| P/FFO | 15.76 | 11.81 | 7.15 | 40.92 | 11.43 |
| P/TBV | 1.10 | 0.98 | 0.75 | 1.78 | 0.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 1.17 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.20 | 3.07 | 2.32 | 4.17 | 0.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates LADR's fair value at $9.74 vs the current price of $10.34, implying -5.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.02 (P10) to $13.21 (P90), with a median of $10.38.
LADR's current P/E of 20.3x compares to the industry median of 16.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +22.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.7x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
17 analysts cover LADR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.00 (range: $13.00 — $13.00), implying +25.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LADR trades at the 8400th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LADR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (17.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1550.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.