MODEL VERDICT
Lithium Argentina AG (LAR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.07 | $10.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.07 | $9.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $8.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $8.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $7.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $8.68 | -16.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.53 | -17.4% | 100% | 25 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates LAR's fair value at $8.53 vs the current price of $10.33, implying -17.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 25/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
LAR's current P/E of -114.8x compares to the industry median of 14.4x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -898.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover LAR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.54 (range: $7.75 — $9.60), implying -17.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 25/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (22), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LAR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.