MODEL VERDICT
LandBridge Company LLC (LB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $66.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $68.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $67.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $67.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $68.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $30.84 | -53.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $47.94 | -27.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $20.91 | -68.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $46.52 | -29.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $50.34 | -23.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $48.71 | -26.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $47.49 | -28.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $45.39 | -31.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $20.29 | -69.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $46.27 | -30.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.54 | -37.1% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 51× | 56× | 61× (Current) | 66× | 71× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $57 | $63 | $69 | $74 | $80 |
| Conservative (7%) | $59 | $64 | $70 | $76 | $82 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $61 | $67 | $72 | $78 | $84 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $63 | $69 | $75 | $81 | $87 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates LB's fair value at $41.54 vs the current price of $66.07, implying -37.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.89 (P10) to $46.31 (P90), with a median of $39.45.
LB's current P/E of 61.2x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +215.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
52 analysts cover LB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $73.33 (range: $65.00 — $90.00), implying +11.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (22), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6870.0% to approximately $111. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.