MODEL VERDICT
Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $9.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $10.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $10.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $11.33 | Pending | -2.1% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $12.54 | Pending | -11.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 11.95 | 2.66 | 1.81 | 46.18 | 19.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.95 | 2.66 | 1.81 | 46.18 | 19.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 228.90 | 19.02 | 9.14 | 1039.13 | 453.43 |
Insufficient data to determine relative valuation for LCID.
Fair value could not be computed for LCID due to insufficient comparable data.
LCID's current P/E of -0.8x compares to the industry median of 17.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -104.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover LCID with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.40 (range: $10.00 — $21.00), implying +44.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (9), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 39/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LCID.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.