MODEL VERDICT
Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $149.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $146.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $155.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $159.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $152.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $228.10 | +52.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $301.95 | +102.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $265.78 | +78.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $283.23 | +89.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $278.16 | +86.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $301.84 | +102.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $306.52 | +105.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $272.84 | +82.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $246.60 | +65.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $265.80 | +78.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $284.30 | +90.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $276.85 | +85.5% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $106 | $130 | $153 | $177 | $201 |
| Conservative (10%) | $110 | $134 | $159 | $183 | $208 |
| Base Case (14.9%) | $115 | $141 | $166 | $192 | $217 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $120 | $147 | $174 | $201 | $227 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.21 | 21.21 | 15.62 | 75.17 | 21.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.04 | 16.62 | 11.09 | 31.48 | 6.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.90 | 13.72 | 9.71 | 20.33 | 3.49 |
| P/FCF | 15.16 | 15.59 | 13.15 | 16.94 | 1.37 |
| P/FFO | 16.13 | 14.26 | 11.79 | 28.18 | 5.57 |
| P/AFFO | 20.48 | 16.33 | 13.05 | 46.24 | 11.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.86 | 3.91 | 2.93 | 4.81 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.14 | 1.18 | 0.93 | 1.39 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LDOS's fair value at $276.85 vs the current price of $149.23, implying +85.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $276.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $234.56 (P10) to $287.96 (P90), with a median of $260.45.
LDOS's current P/E of 13.4x compares to the industry median of 23.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -43.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
27 analysts cover LDOS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $204.00 (range: $185.00 — $220.00), implying +36.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 8.5% is 2.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (5.5%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$198. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LDOS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3250.0% to approximately $198. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.