MODEL VERDICT
BNY Mellon Strategic Municipals, Inc. (LEO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $6.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.37 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.43 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.29 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 20 industry peers | $6.58 | +3.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 20 bank peers | $6.58 | +3.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $3.44 | -46.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $2.04 | -68.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.48 | -14.1% | 100% | 74 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 61.32 | 11.14 | 5.12 | 202.77 | 84.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.40 | 14.83 | 5.07 | 63.78 | 24.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.63 | 28.28 | 7.67 | 38.27 | 13.47 |
| P/FCF | 17.15 | 16.81 | 6.87 | 31.31 | 9.85 |
| P/FFO | 21.01 | 25.07 | 7.75 | 26.14 | 8.88 |
| P/TBV | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.94 | 0.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.94 | 0.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.06 | 14.74 | 5.12 | 23.14 | 7.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates LEO's fair value at $5.48 vs the current price of $6.38, implying -14.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.07 (P10) to $6.99 (P90), with a median of $5.48.
LEO's current P/E of -30.4x compares to the industry median of 6.3x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -580.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 61.3x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for LEO.
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LEO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.