MODEL VERDICT
Legacy Education Inc. (LGCY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 22 analyst estimates | $8.84 | -15.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 19 industry peers | $10.29 | -1.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 18 industry peers | $7.82 | -25.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 19 industry peers | $1.50 | -85.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $9.00 | -14.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 18 industry peers | $1.95 | -81.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $9.34 | -11.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 22 industry peers | $7.10 | -32.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 17 industry peers | $8.11 | -22.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 18 industry peers | $1.53 | -85.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.37 | -29.8% | 100% | 65 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (5%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Base Case (-7.2%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $11 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates LGCY's fair value at $7.37 vs the current price of $10.49, implying -29.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.20 (P10) to $8.22 (P90), with a median of $7.21.
LGCY's current P/E of 23.8x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (18 peers in the group). This represents a +34.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover LGCY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.25 (range: $8.25 — $8.25), implying -21.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LGCY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.