MODEL VERDICT
Lennox International Inc. (LII)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $526.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $490.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $487.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $484.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $505.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $643.25 | +22.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $646.47 | +22.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $833.16 | +58.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $598.99 | +13.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $754.66 | +43.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $601.73 | +14.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $936.27 | +78.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $579.18 | +10.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $568.29 | +8.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $833.18 | +58.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $598.91 | +13.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $602.10 | +14.4% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $479 | $526 | $574 | $622 | $670 |
| Conservative (13%) | $500 | $550 | $600 | $650 | $700 |
| Base Case (19.2%) | $530 | $583 | $636 | $689 | $742 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $559 | $615 | $671 | $727 | $783 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.66 | 26.22 | 17.22 | 29.68 | 4.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.83 | 21.98 | 15.65 | 24.49 | 2.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.25 | 19.91 | 13.98 | 21.10 | 2.89 |
| P/FCF | 30.38 | 29.76 | 19.81 | 42.57 | 7.00 |
| P/FFO | 21.31 | 22.68 | 14.89 | 24.66 | 3.52 |
| P/TBV | 104.33 | 34.61 | 25.60 | 252.79 | 128.65 |
| P/AFFO | 27.34 | 28.31 | 18.07 | 37.51 | 6.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 32.10 | 25.66 | 14.65 | 56.00 | 21.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.96 | 2.91 | 1.82 | 4.08 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LII's fair value at $602.10 vs the current price of $526.12, implying +14.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $602.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $585.51 (P10) to $669.42 (P90), with a median of $626.70.
LII's current P/E of 23.7x compares to the industry median of 37.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -36.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
30 analysts cover LII with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $553.45 (range: $450.00 — $650.00), implying +5.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (16), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 14.9% is 3.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (15.8%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$580. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LII's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1030.0% to approximately $580. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.