MODEL VERDICT
BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (LND)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $3.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $9.70 | +150.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $26.39 | +580.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $12.00 | +209.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $3.52 | -9.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $20.01 | +415.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $25.53 | +558.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $36.23 | +833.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $12.22 | +214.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.10 | +186.0% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $23 | $25 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 |
| Base Case (-7.2%) | $13 | $15 | $18 | $20 | $23 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $12 | $15 | $17 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.78 | 1.59 | 1.09 | 2.59 | 0.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.87 | 3.09 | 0.58 | 17.39 | 5.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.73 | 3.18 | 1.08 | 14.14 | 4.77 |
| P/FCF | 13.07 | 6.04 | 2.91 | 33.66 | 13.83 |
| P/FFO | 1.40 | 1.29 | 0.90 | 2.30 | 0.48 |
| P/TBV | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.29 | 0.05 |
| P/AFFO | 1.94 | 1.65 | 0.94 | 4.70 | 1.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.45 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.88 | 0.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.34 | 0.54 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates LND's fair value at $11.10 vs the current price of $3.88, implying +186.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.06 (P10) to $12.71 (P90), with a median of $10.20.
LND's current P/E of 14.0x compares to the industry median of 19.1x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -26.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.8x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for LND.
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LND trades at the 4000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LND.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.