MODEL VERDICT
Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $181.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $179.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $172.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $166.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $168.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $159.25 | -12.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $107.81 | -40.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $147.23 | -18.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $152.16 | -16.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $176.62 | -2.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $194.69 | +7.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $201.32 | +10.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $149.26 | -17.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $146.97 | -19.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $269.98 | +48.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $178.87 | -1.5% | 100% | 69 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 51× | 55× (Current) | 59× | 63× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $159 | $172 | $186 | $199 | $213 |
| Conservative (5%) | $163 | $177 | $191 | $205 | $219 |
| Base Case (-7.8%) | $143 | $156 | $168 | $180 | $192 |
| Bull Case (-11%) | $139 | $151 | $163 | $175 | $186 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.66 | 26.31 | 13.85 | 43.41 | 9.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.72 | 18.23 | 10.43 | 31.18 | 6.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.56 | 16.42 | 9.43 | 21.83 | 4.25 |
| P/FCF | 21.08 | 23.20 | 10.00 | 28.86 | 6.64 |
| P/FFO | 20.46 | 21.57 | 12.22 | 30.91 | 6.19 |
| P/TBV | 7.21 | 7.05 | 6.55 | 8.33 | 0.72 |
| P/AFFO | 22.37 | 23.43 | 12.91 | 32.93 | 6.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.87 | 6.73 | 6.27 | 7.94 | 0.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.12 | 1.11 | 0.80 | 1.31 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LSTR's fair value at $178.87 vs the current price of $181.56, implying -1.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $178.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $125.88 (P10) to $161.48 (P90), with a median of $143.50.
LSTR's current P/E of 54.9x compares to the industry median of 44.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +23.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.7x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
33 analysts cover LSTR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $170.75 (range: $135.00 — $195.00), implying -6.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (29), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LSTR trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LSTR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1270.0% to approximately $205. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.