MODEL VERDICT
Macy's, Inc. (M)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $19.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $19.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $19.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $33.11 | +68.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $56.92 | +189.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $34.48 | +75.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $53.44 | +171.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $29.47 | +49.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $43.37 | +120.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $94.60 | +380.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $112.07 | +469.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $34.42 | +74.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $53.44 | +171.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.68 | +116.8% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $14 | $19 | $24 | $29 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $15 | $20 | $25 | $30 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $15 | $20 | $26 | $31 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $16 | $21 | $26 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.25 | 8.79 | 4.93 | 125.75 | 48.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.59 | 10.10 | 6.28 | 59.26 | 20.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.66 | 5.17 | 4.14 | 8.80 | 1.70 |
| P/FCF | 11.84 | 11.74 | 3.89 | 19.13 | 6.60 |
| P/FFO | 3.84 | 3.50 | 2.90 | 5.94 | 1.09 |
| P/TBV | 2.29 | 2.06 | 1.45 | 3.49 | 0.70 |
| P/AFFO | 9.16 | 6.72 | 4.82 | 18.00 | 5.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.37 | 1.37 | 0.83 | 2.27 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates M's fair value at $42.68 vs the current price of $19.69, implying +116.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.27 (P10) to $59.59 (P90), with a median of $46.96.
M's current P/E of 8.5x compares to the industry median of 14.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -42.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
40 analysts cover M with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.20 (range: $9.00 — $22.00), implying -2.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (20), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that M's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (0.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5590.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.