MODEL VERDICT
Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $15.15 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $13.80 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $14.81 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $14.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $1.45 | -90.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $4.38 | -70.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $2.11 | -85.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $4.63 | -68.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $3.76 | -74.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $4.87 | -67.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $0.15 | -99.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $5.05 | -66.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $4.99 | -66.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $2.08 | -86.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $4.34 | -70.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.42 | +77.2% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 97× | 106× | 115× (Current) | 124× | 133× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| Conservative (5%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
| Base Case (1.6%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 80.72 | 81.97 | 16.75 | 143.36 | 50.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 158.67 | 70.32 | 19.33 | 654.57 | 244.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 46.89 | 41.71 | 15.71 | 83.20 | 25.93 |
| P/FCF | 1331.59 | 50.22 | 21.06 | 6484.84 | 2579.03 |
| P/FFO | 55.27 | 49.16 | 14.04 | 101.08 | 32.28 |
| P/TBV | 38.67 | 41.46 | 8.32 | 77.01 | 27.83 |
| P/AFFO | 674.19 | 52.74 | 15.48 | 3203.51 | 1414.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.25 | 13.18 | 7.92 | 21.36 | 5.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.65 | 2.46 | 1.36 | 4.31 | 1.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MAMA's fair value at $26.42 vs the current price of $14.91, implying +77.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.36 (P10) to $84.29 (P90), with a median of $28.22.
MAMA's current P/E of 114.7x compares to the industry median of 16.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +607.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 80.7x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover MAMA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.00 (range: $21.00 — $25.00), implying +54.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MAMA trades at the 9310th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (80.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MAMA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1010.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.