MODEL VERDICT
Matson, Inc. (MATX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $173.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $172.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $176.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $170.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $171.27 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $267.42 | +54.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $273.27 | +57.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $334.01 | +92.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $363.71 | +109.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $302.51 | +74.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $428.22 | +146.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $672.56 | +287.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $161.51 | -6.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $165.42 | -4.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $333.76 | +92.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $363.71 | +109.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $294.30 | +69.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $138 | $168 | $199 | $229 | $260 |
| Conservative (17%) | $146 | $178 | $210 | $243 | $275 |
| Base Case (25.6%) | $157 | $192 | $226 | $261 | $296 |
| Bull Case (35%) | $168 | $205 | $243 | $280 | $317 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.35 | 9.68 | 2.31 | 21.36 | 6.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.79 | 8.39 | 2.27 | 22.78 | 6.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.81 | 5.91 | 1.97 | 9.87 | 2.65 |
| P/FCF | 8.45 | 8.55 | 2.31 | 14.93 | 4.35 |
| P/FFO | 5.03 | 5.87 | 1.78 | 6.50 | 1.81 |
| P/TBV | 3.23 | 2.13 | 1.37 | 6.42 | 2.01 |
| P/AFFO | 7.79 | 9.72 | 1.79 | 11.87 | 4.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.85 | 1.74 | 1.07 | 2.58 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.02 | 1.04 | 0.57 | 1.35 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MATX's fair value at $294.30 vs the current price of $173.55, implying +69.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $294.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $221.19 (P10) to $293.51 (P90), with a median of $257.18.
MATX's current P/E of 12.5x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -48.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover MATX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $190.00 (range: $167.00 — $213.00), implying +9.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MATX trades at the 4800th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MATX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1250.0% to approximately $195. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.