MODEL VERDICT
Moelis & Company (MC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $59.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $63.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $65.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $72.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $74.58 | Below threshold | -1.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $46.95 | -20.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $21.77 | -63.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $26.72 | -55.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $2.59 | -95.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $47.93 | -19.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $51.53 | -13.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.11 | -40.8% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $49 | $54 | $60 | $65 | $71 |
| Conservative (5%) | $50 | $56 | $62 | $67 | $73 |
| Base Case (-1.2%) | $47 | $53 | $58 | $63 | $69 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $47 | $53 | $58 | $63 | $68 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.37 | 16.37 | 11.71 | 41.51 | 11.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.18 | 11.54 | 6.64 | 31.63 | 9.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.62 | 11.23 | 6.51 | 29.83 | 8.50 |
| P/FCF | 23.68 | 8.74 | 4.54 | 99.80 | 34.46 |
| P/FFO | 18.46 | 15.79 | 11.49 | 38.65 | 10.14 |
| P/TBV | 8.03 | 7.67 | 4.50 | 11.81 | 2.89 |
| P/AFFO | 20.24 | 17.41 | 12.02 | 42.12 | 11.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.54 | 6.39 | 4.50 | 11.81 | 2.92 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.16 | 2.78 | 1.97 | 4.74 | 1.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MC's fair value at $35.11 vs the current price of $59.36, implying -40.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.82 (P10) to $43.51 (P90), with a median of $36.37.
MC's current P/E of 33.3x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +26.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.4x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
22 analysts cover MC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $76.83 (range: $66.00 — $82.00), implying +29.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (13), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MC trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2970.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.