MODEL VERDICT
Moelis & Company (MC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $64.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $68.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $67.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $66.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $63.04 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $64.62 | -0.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $24.95 | -61.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $31.94 | -50.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $142.38 | +119.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $64.57 | -0.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $47.88 | -26.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.29 | -10.0% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $54 | $60 | $66 | $72 | $78 |
| Conservative (5%) | $56 | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 |
| Base Case (-0.1%) | $53 | $59 | $65 | $70 | $76 |
| Bull Case (-0%) | $53 | $59 | $65 | $70 | $76 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.21 | 17.41 | 11.71 | 41.51 | 10.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.72 | 14.08 | 7.96 | 31.63 | 8.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.57 | 13.53 | 7.85 | 29.83 | 7.86 |
| P/FCF | 24.47 | 10.09 | 4.65 | 99.80 | 34.01 |
| P/FFO | 20.16 | 16.57 | 11.49 | 38.65 | 9.69 |
| P/TBV | 8.02 | 8.01 | 4.50 | 11.81 | 2.64 |
| P/AFFO | 22.49 | 18.79 | 12.02 | 42.12 | 10.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.02 | 8.01 | 4.50 | 11.81 | 2.63 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.39 | 3.01 | 2.37 | 4.74 | 0.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MC's fair value at $58.29 vs the current price of $64.76, implying -10.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.16 (P10) to $68.68 (P90), with a median of $59.43.
MC's current P/E of 22.0x compares to the industry median of 22.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +0.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
22 analysts cover MC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $73.40 (range: $58.00 — $83.00), implying +13.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (13), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MC trades at the 5140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1410.0% to approximately $56. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.