MODEL VERDICT
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $117.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $114.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $100.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $97.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $98.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $108.33 | -7.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $93.15 | -20.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $94.56 | -19.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $98.68 | -16.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $99.78 | -15.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $169.47 | +44.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $94.68 | -19.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $59.76 | -49.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $44.47 | -62.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $94.41 | -19.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $98.72 | -16.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $117.61 | -0.0% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $111 | $123 | $136 | $148 | $160 |
| Conservative (22%) | $119 | $133 | $146 | $159 | $173 |
| Base Case (34.1%) | $131 | $146 | $160 | $175 | $189 |
| Bull Case (46%) | $143 | $159 | $175 | $190 | $206 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.33 | 20.55 | 16.46 | 48.98 | 11.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.49 | 15.70 | 12.11 | 86.56 | 27.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.67 | 10.09 | 8.47 | 40.55 | 11.69 |
| P/FCF | 14.73 | 15.01 | 10.94 | 17.70 | 2.53 |
| P/FFO | 15.22 | 12.06 | 10.46 | 28.19 | 6.45 |
| P/TBV | 3.13 | 3.04 | 2.78 | 3.51 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 18.35 | 16.80 | 15.00 | 23.95 | 3.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.95 | 2.89 | 2.64 | 3.33 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.65 | 3.29 | 2.71 | 6.27 | 1.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCRI's fair value at $117.61 vs the current price of $117.62, implying -0.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $117.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $97.94 (P10) to $135.53 (P90), with a median of $115.76.
MCRI's current P/E of 21.7x compares to the industry median of 17.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +24.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.3x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
9 analysts cover MCRI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $104.50 (range: $97.00 — $112.00), implying -11.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MCRI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1560.0% to approximately $136. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.