MODEL VERDICT
Modiv Industrial, Inc. (MDV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $13.85 | -7.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $7.03 | -52.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 19 industry peers | $19.96 | +34.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $5.50 | -63.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $8.16 | -45.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 19 industry peers | $14.25 | -4.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 19 industry peers | $19.66 | +32.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.51 | -9.3% | 100% | 76 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 59× | 65× | 71× (Current) | 77× | 83× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 49.01 | 43.21 | 16.81 | 87.01 | 35.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.28 | 13.61 | 11.27 | 20.95 | 5.05 |
| P/FCF | 6.79 | 6.27 | 4.98 | 9.13 | 2.12 |
| P/FFO | 8.70 | 7.36 | 7.12 | 11.63 | 2.54 |
| P/TBV | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.78 | 0.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.34 | 0.78 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.55 | 2.20 | 1.89 | 3.56 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates MDV's fair value at $13.51 vs the current price of $14.89, implying -9.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.08 (P10) to $17.47 (P90), with a median of $14.19.
MDV's current P/E of 70.9x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +170.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover MDV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying +20.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MDV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.