MODEL VERDICT
Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (MEG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $22.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $21.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $21.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $21.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $21.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $4.08 | -81.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $24.35 | +10.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $77.81 | +251.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $5.96 | -73.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $75.61 | +241.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $69.66 | +214.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $59.88 | +170.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $76.07 | +243.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $83.87 | +278.8% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 38.12 | 43.25 | 14.84 | 49.74 | 12.88 |
| P/FCF | 183.58 | 62.82 | 9.57 | 679.91 | 280.57 |
| P/FFO | 96.10 | 52.82 | 17.42 | 303.61 | 117.50 |
| P/AFFO | 68.27 | 88.17 | 25.83 | 90.81 | 36.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.37 | 3.36 | 1.37 | 5.95 | 1.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.82 | 1.55 | 0.88 | 3.45 | 0.96 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates MEG's fair value at $83.87 vs the current price of $22.14, implying +278.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $83.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.95 (P10) to $157.10 (P90), with a median of $74.72.
MEG's current P/E of -158.1x compares to the industry median of 35.6x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -544.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover MEG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.33 (range: $43.00 — $54.00), implying +122.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MEG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.